Welcome back to the third edition of my NFL breakdown. I sure this post wont sit well with some of my friend but i dont give a hot damn. When i researched this division, one thing slapped me in my face so hard, I blacked out. The Colts had the #1 Passing offensive in the league and how have they been able to dominate the division. NOBODY in the damn division could defend the pass. Jags 28th against the Pass, Titans 29th against the pass, and the Texans 32rd. How in the hell can you go into the season thinking you can dethrone the champion Indianapolis Colts, well i got 3 reasons why the Colts wont be that guy this year and why they are done forever.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Offensive Team Stats, 2010: 3rd in Rushing, 27th in Passing, 18th in Scoring
Defensive Team Stats, 2010: 22th in Rushing, 28th in Passing, 27th in Scoring
Key arrivals: CB Drew Coleman (Jets); S Dawan Landry (Ravens); OLB Clint Session (Colts); LB Paul Posluszny (Bills); OG Jason Spitz (Packers), DE/OLB Matt Roth (Browns).
Key departures: S Sean Considine (to Panthers); WR Mike Sims-Walker (to Rams); P Adam Podlesh (to Bears); OLB Justin Durant (to Lions); QB Trent Edwards (to Raiders); MLB Kirk Morrison (Bills).
Offense:
The Jags at time can be explosive, show potential of having a good offense, then they show glimpses of being bums and very predictable. Maurice Jones-Drew is the engine to this offense and the reason they have the 3rd rushing offense in the league and his injury is the reason why they missed the playoffs last year. If hes healthy they can run the ball on anybody. Now thats TE Marcedes Lewis is a probowler and has established himself, he will seek more attention. The jas have to find a legit Wr in a hurry to help this offense. Mike Sims-Walker is now lining up as St. Louis Ram. The problem and future falter will be at the QB position. David Garrard time is almost up. Times he can move the chains and keep the series alive and time he throws horrible throws and put the time in a bind. He has to fix these issues or his starting spot will be gone by week 10 and they will be eliminated from playoff contention.
Defense:
The Jags got a major face lift on this side of the ball and if guys can hurry and buy into the position and learn their plays they will be just fine on defense. They invested alot of money in MLB Paul Posluszny, OLB Clint Session, S Dawan Landry. They had no choice because they gave up a franchise record 419 points and used their first 3 draft picks on offensive players. They have one of the best DT duos in Tyson Alualu and Terrence Knighton. They return a healthy Aaron Kampman and Roth on the other end. If this defensive can create pressure, they will be in every ball game.
David Garrard
THIS IS IT. Not only for him but also Jack Del Rio. They have so shown improvement. Major improvement or they are both fired. I believe Del Rio drafted Blaine Gabbert to keep him from being fired but he is far from ready to play this season. Garrard has to move the ball and put points on the board to compete in this division. Accuracy has been spotty at times and he can fix that, he has had great seasons before. I believe would have won the division last year if Jones-Drew doesn't get hurt. But everything now is on David. Playoff or bust and it will all come back on him.
Final Thoughts: I dont believe they have enough offensive weapons to compete this year in this division. The defense will keep them in every ball game but at the end of the day, point will have to be put on the board. 40 sacks in the past 2 years is a embarrassing stat that I dont think they will be able to fix this season. a stretch in the season where they play: Steelers-Ravens-Texans-Colts-Browns-Texans-Chargers-Bucs-Falcons in a span of 10 weeks will be essentially too tough to overcome and eliminate them from the playoffs.
Prediction: 5-11 (4th in AFC South)
Tennessee Titans
Offensive Team Stats, 2010: 17th in rushing, 25th in Passing, 17th in Scoring
Defensive Team Stats, 2010: 20th in Rushing, 29th in Passing, 15th in Scoring
Key arrivals: S Jordan Babineaux (Seahawks); CB Frank Walker (Vikings); TE Daniel Graham (Broncos); LB Barrett Ruud (Bucs); DT Shaun Smith (Chiefs); QB Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks).
Key departures: TE Bo Scaife (to Bengals); LB David Thornton (retired); WR Randy Moss (retired); MLB Stephen Tulloch (to Lions); DE Jason Babin (to Eagles); QB Vince Young (Eagles); DT Tony Brown (Cut).
Gone is Vince Young & Kerry Collins. Now enter Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker. Locker who has looked pretty good during this preseason will be the understudy to Matt Hasselbeck for a season or two. Hasselbeck, a consistent accurate passer and leader is just the type of guy they have needed. Someone to keep the defense on their toes and keep from putting 8 men in the box. The problem with be finding a consistent pass catcher. Jared Cook at TE is ready for a breakout season and will be one one of the NFL best keep secrets. Kenny Britt has no intention of ever being level headed and a solid NFL WR. Nate Washington is solid but not quite there to be a Number 1 or 2 WR. Heres the wildcard with the offense: Chris Johnson. He pretty much the entertainment, the franchise player, the game isnt really won or lost with his legs but he fills the sits. His new deal was just signed, now is he ready and in great enough shape to carry another load this season. One of the best playmakers and just got paid like one, i believe his true ability and impact on the game will be shown when they surround him with quality talent.
Defense:
The defense wont be some predictable this season. Alot more personal changes i've seen during the preseason and i expect to see players put in the best position to make plays. CB Cortland Finnegan will probably be used in the Charles Woodson mode because of his aggressive nature. Man up on slot WRs and third down situations and blitzing from the position. LB Barrett Ruud will be a key cog at MLB. A quiet star who made all type of plays for the Bucs is ready to do the same for the Titans. The team strength for the past few years, the defensive line, was kind of abused and pushed around last year. An Upgrade by signing Shaun Smith will be a big quality body the cog the middle. Losing Jason Babin, their leading pass rusher, is big but not huge. Derrick Morgan back from injury and Jason Jones should be able to man down the two spots. A strong secondary that got abused last year as well will be alot better with a consistent pass rush.
Derrick Morgan
The teams top draft pick last season. He got injured early on and missed a good chunk of his rookie season. A big guy who is good athlete and is solid against the run. The defense needs him to take his game to another level and become one of the leaders on the defense. Jason Jones and Derrick Morgan can be a force for years to come if they are able to show the ability to get to the QB, and in this division, you have to get to the QB often. The 2nd year of a players career is the most important to see if they have that ability to turn that corner of solid to good to great. Morgan is the ability to be a good player.
Final Thought:
One of the hardest teams to breakdown because they can surprise and win 7 games in a row or disappoint and lose 7 games in a row. Right now they can compete for the 2nd best record in the division but is far from being the champs. No offseason workouts means QB limited time with WRs, learning the playbook. The end of the schedule is brutal and we have remain to see if Chris Johnson is ready to play. I believe will be eliminated in the middle of the season and realize they have a star in the making in Jake Locker on the bench.
Prediction:
6-10 (3rd in AFC South)
Indianapolis Colts
Offensive Team Stats, 2010: 29th in Rushing, 1st in Passing, 4th in Scoring
Defensive Team Stats, 2010: 25th in Rushing, 13th in Passing, 23rd in Scoring
Key arrivals: LB Ernie Sims (Eagles); DE Jamaal Anderson (Falcons) DT Tommie Harris (Bears).
Key departures: OT Charlie Johnson (to Vikings); DT Daniel Muir (to Rams); CB Kelvin Hayden; OLB Clint Session (to Jaguars); DE Keyunta Dawson; S Aaron Francisco; OLB Tyjuan Hagler.
Offense:
The Offensive line has another shake. Jeff Saturday is the only certain player. Ryan Diem has moved from tackle to guard. ROOKIE Anthony Castonzo is slated to start at the all important LT position. Joe Reitz (a damn basketball player from Western Michigan) is listed as the start at left guard. The team claims its wants to run the ball more but i believe that dont try. They threw 679 passes last season, the 2nd most in NFL History. Even if running plays are called, Peyton changes the play to something else. People are calling Donald Brown a bust, but hes a physical back running draws and stretch plays, with not getting enough carries even with Addai missing 8 games last season. The Receiver core is one of the best in the NFL and Dallas Clark is one of the best pass catching TE's in the game. The major question coming out of Indianpolis is the healthy of Peyton Manning. Is he still hurt, will he be ready to go? Is he fully healed from surgery and will he be able to take hit? I believe the signing of Kerry Collins answers that question. The Colts are hiding the truth and Peyton isn't fully healed.
Defense:
The Colts key signings were Tommie Harris, Ernie Sims and Jamaal Anderson. ALL BENCH PLAYERS. Sims could compete for a starting spot but is a huge liability on passing downs. A player who seems like a person fit for the defense will probably fight for a roster spot. The secondary is still a strength for this team and now no longer have to live in the shadow of Bob Sanders. Antoine Bethea has worked hard and has become one of the best safeties in the game. Freeney and Mathis is still the best pass rushing duo in the league and as long as they are healthy, they can get the team off the field on 3rd downs. The team still has trouble stopping the run and with 3 other elite running backs in this league it will continue to be a major trouble spot for them.
Peyton Manning
When the season is lost, point the finger at Peyton Manning. When the Colts miss the playoffs, point the finger at Peyton Manning. When this has become the end of a beautiful successful run, point the finger at Peyton Manning. Yes, this guy has won this team a world championship but hidden is his bad performances in the playoffs. When the Colts lose in the playoffs, we have this world wide thought: "How did the defense cost us the game." People dont think this guy has ever done any wrong. Maybe this will refresh you guys memory -->
Ive heard everybody in the world blame Reggie Wayne or "bad coaching." This guy has held this organization hostage. They pay him big bucks and lose other key players. The had a perfect back for their system years ago in Edgerrin James, but they paid Peyton a major deal and lost James to free agency. As for the season this offseason, they broke the bank on Peyton again and wasnt able to sign key defensive players. One Super Bowl isnt enough, especially for a guy people want to consider the best ever. Now its an injury, while it not his fault that hes hurt. The team didnt plan around it, they havent groomed a backup QB nor drafted one. They draft skill players for Peyton every year and ignore the defense. This is the year the catering to their super star player will backfire and end the run of a great franchise. All it took was a paycut for Edgerrin James years ago.
Final Thoughts:
Peyton will miss the first 3 games. The running game will be nonexistent. The run defense will be the same run defense. They will lose some game they arent suspose to lose and its going to kill this football team.Parts of the schedule is brutal but very manageable, but that requires a healty Peyton Manning. Remember when Roy Jones was one the best pound for pound exciting boxers in the world. Won Big but never constantly won big. As he got older he took butt whoopings but some people still believed in him. Here is your Roy Jones. Goodnight.
Prediction:
9-7 (2nd in AFC South)
Houston Texans
Offensive Team Stats, 2010: 7th in Rushing, 4th in Passing, 9th in Scoring
Defensive Team Stats, 2010: 13th in Rushing, 32nd in Passing, 29th in Scoring
Key arrivals: FB Lawrence Vickers (Browns); P Brad Maynard (Bears); CB Johnathan Joseph (Texans); SS Danieal Manning (Bears).
Key departures: DE Mark Anderson (to Patriots); S Bernard Pollard (to Ravens); FB Vonta Leach (to Ravens); OLB Zac Diles (to Rams); P Matt Turk (to Jaguars).
Offense:
7th in rushing, 4th in passing, 9th in scoring. This offense is legit and can move the ball on anybody on any given sunday. Arian Foster injury could worry people but with the Texans zone blocking scheme, they can plug in Ben Tate and be just fine. Andre Johnson is still the best offensive weapon in the league and a force. Matt Schuab is slowly creeping into the elite QB list. Gary Kubiak knows his job is on the line and will be agressive as possible all season.
Defense:
The 3-4 defense has arrived, and the great thing is Wade Phillips is running the defense. Yes, he got fired as the Cowboys head coach, but he has always been known as a great defensive coordinator and that wont stop here. After the team finished 30th in total D and 32nd against the pass, he was a huge hire. The main problem is now their best defensive player has now switched positions. Mario Williams has moved to outside linebacker. From the preseason, i seen him on the weakside most of the time where he will rush the passer about 95% of the time from a two-point stance. If he is able to figure out the position, he can become very dominate. The Texans also drafted J.J. Watt to rush the passer, Conner Barwin is coming along greatly to the change to OLB and is primed for a big season. Another major change to watch is Brian Cushing moving inside to MLB and regaining his form from his rookie season, where he was rookie of the year and a pro bowl player. The huge difference is the defense is the money spent on a secondary overhaul. One of the worse stats ever in NFL history, the Texans allowed on Avg. 267 yards a game and a crazy, i repeat CRAZY, passer rating of 100.5. The secondary will now have three new starters in Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. Top corner Glover Quin has moved to Strong Safety and Jason Allen is battling for the other CB spot. This is a huge upgrade over last season, and if this unit can gel in a hurry, they easily will be the division champs.
Jonathan Joseph
The Texans opposing QB rating was 100.5. QB's were licking their chops when they seen the Texans on the schedule. So they knew they needed an impact player in the secondary and they went out and found one. Joseph, one of the top CB in the league, was the biggest underrated signing in the entire free agency period. Will he solve all of their problems? NO, but his going to be a major cog of getting this thing turned around. This could be a last go around for these coaches. He wanted the big show out in Texas, now he has it. Now he can should the world what hes capable of instead of being unknown playing for those Bengal bums.
Final Thought:
Every year with being a game or two short, or injuries away from being a playoff team, this is the year they get the monkey off their back. They have gotten the pieces to make a push for the division championship. Now they have to go out and show. They have had a great showing in the preseason, now its time to carry it over to the regular. I believe they figure it out on defense and they are able to rush the passer from that 3-4 front and stop teams.
Prediction:
10-6 (1st in AFC South) Wildcard
